On Monday, June 15, 2022, the price of bitcoin was not seen since mid-December 2020, as the price stood at $20,080 per unit. A large number of crypto supporters are debating whether the decline is a market low or whether a fall could cause deep losses. At the time of writing, bitcoin is down 70% from its all-time high (ATH) of $69K, but traditionally, bitcoin has been known to fall around 80% or more from its recorded ATH in the past.
Will bitcoin drop more than 80% this time?
The crypto economy has taken a couple of weeks, with major crypto asset Bitcoin (BTC) down 35% over the past 14 days. Speculators have speculated whether this may or may not be a bear market, to say that it is definitely a bear market.
Over the past few days, there has been a lot of capitulation and on Monday, hundreds of thousands of crypto traders were liquidated for around $1.30 billion. Two days later, bitcoin fell to a low of $20,080 per BTC and the last time BTC traded at this price was 17 months ago in mid-December 2020.
At current USD prices, bitcoin is down 70% from $69K ATH on November 10, 2021. During the bull run in 2013 and 2017, Bitcoin (BTC) lost more than 80% compared to its previous price peak. Bobby Ong, founder of Coingecko.com tweeted Regarding the decline of Bitcoin from the previous bull market and he included Ethereum (ETH) in the 2017 runup.
For example, after the 2013 high of around $1,127 per unit, BTC was down 82% at $200 per coin by 2015. Ong’s tweet shows that in 2017, BTC surged to $19,423 per unit, but by 2018 the price fell to a low of $3,217, which is 83% lower than the high.
The Coingecko co-founder pointed out that Ethereum is down 94% during the 2017-2018 price cycle. Ong’s tweet was published on June 11, 2022, and at the time, BTC was 59% lower in USD value than ATH, and 69% lower in ETH. At the time of writing, the dollar value of ETH is down 75.4% compared to the crypto asset’s all-time high ($4,815) on November 10, 2021.
Let’s do some math.
– Colin Talks Crypto – CBBI.info (@ColinTCrypto) 15 June 2022
Of course, there is a lot of speculation and theories about whether or not the BTC price will go down from here. A drop of 80% from the ATH of BTC in 2021, will be around $13,800 per unit. If Ethereum saw a 90% drop from ATH last year, the USD would be worth around $488 per Ether. Some speculators predict that BTC could reach $12K per unit and ETH could tap $360 per unit.
A drop below $19K erases pre-halving price high, bitcoin miners struggle, macroeconomic disasters continue to rock global markets
So far, more than $2 trillion worth has left the crypto ecosystem since the ATH of the crypto economy last year. Traders are also concerned about the next halving, as the price should be very high when miners get only 3.125 BTC per block. A drop below $19K per BTC will erase the previous pre-East price highs. Furthermore, using the current BTC exchange rate and $0.12 per kilowatt-hour (kWh), only seven ASIC mining rigs are seeing stable gains.
Bitmain’s Antminer S19 XP achieves an estimated profit of $3.49 per day at 140 terahashes per second (th/s), using the same power cost of $0.12 per kilowatt hour. With 126 TH/s the Microbt Whatsminer M50S gets an estimated $1.51 per day in BTC profit using the same power cost. At $0.12 per kWh, machines producing 84 TH/s are not profitable unless they have cheap power resources.
All these signs and the thousands of crypto workers fired during the past few weeks arguably show that this is definitely a bear market. The question remains whether there will be an 80%+ drop in this cycle and how long will the bears last.
There are also macroeconomic disasters and concerns over rising inflation, hiking rates of central banks and the ongoing war between Ukraine and Russia. Bitcoin steadily rose to its ATH, while Americans and citizens of other countries received incentive payments. While the bitcoin and crypto markets never experienced the Covid-19 lockdown economy before, the crypto economy has never been tested under the current conditions.
What do you think about the current price cycle of bitcoin? Do you expect ATH to drop 80% from last year? Let us know what you think about this topic in the comment section below.
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