As the market moves towards a more bearish trend, every bitcoin investor is carefully watching for signs that are pointing down, but the price movement this week suggests we are not there yet.
The latest Blockware Solutions Market Intelligence newsletter found evidence of this by looking at the monthly returns of Bitcoin (BTC), which was hit with a sharp decrease. “Converted into one of the biggest shortfalls in monthly returns for the asset class in its history.”
As global economic barriers build up, bitcoin continues to move within an increasingly limited trading range that is being squeezed further downwards.
The question whether the price will continue to drop is a hot issue among crypto experts, and the current consensus is that it will.
$45,000. No bitcoin bull run till
According to Blockware Solutions, several signs point to a bleak outlook as long as BTC trades in the $45,000 to $47,000 region.
This is based on the fact that bitcoin started at $46,200 in 2022, but according to the 180-week exponential rudder moving average, which gives more weight to current price moments, indicates that for bitcoin, current price action is falling and hence, the currency is currently located at $47,166.
According to short-term holders, traders who have traded for less than 155 days are those who have been badly hit by the market crash with the current cost basis for short-term holders resting at $45,038 .
Taking these statistical points together suggests that BTC sentiment will remain pessimistic as long as the price stays below $45,000.
looking down market,
Although the current analysis is pessimistic, there are signs that the market is looking downwards.
According to the latest Glassnode Uncharted newsletter, after bitcoin fell below $30,000 in early May, “network activity picked up in the form of excess supply, but the network lost value.”
“This moment is one of the great shopping opportunities in history,” claims Glassnode.
The research cited unit-adjusted dormancy flows, which are consolidating inside an area previously considered an optimal buying zone, to support the conclusion that bitcoin is currently in a favorable buying zone.
Blockware Solutions, on the other hand, looks for data points that show the market is looking for a bottom that also contains the Meyer Multiple, a metric that compares the current market price to the 200-day moving average, which is now somewhere around the corner. Lowest reading on record.
While several data indicators suggest that the crypto market is in a bear market, there are signs that seller fatigue is nearing a range and the market is looking for a bottom. It is unclear where this will lie, although multiple signals are now pointing to a strong support near $21,000.
