Bitcoin is in one of its longest downtrends yet. While it has been recovering lately, there has not really been enough upward momentum to guarantee that the market could be headed for another bull rally. Instead, the bears’ trend continues to strengthen, prompting speculation as to when a bottom may occur. This also raises the question of how low the price of a digital asset can be if it has not already hit the bottom.
what does history say
When trying to determine how far a digital asset like bitcoin might fall, it can often be helpful to look at how that asset has moved in the past. As for bitcoin, it is not difficult to look at its historical data, given that the cryptocurrency has been around for over a decade. Although despite its relatively young age, its past market movements continue to provide a wealth of data to analyze its movement patterns.
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After the last bull run, the price of bitcoin has fallen significantly lower than expected. One example is following the 2017 bull market, in which the price of the digital asset reached nearly $20,000. This was followed by a drawn out bear market that would last for the next three years. During this time, the price of the digital asset will drop by more than 80% from its all-time high, causing it to touch a low of $3,000, representing a drop of 84%.
BTC continues recovery trend | Source: BTCUSD on TradingView.com
The same was the case during the 2013/2014 bull rally when the price rose above $1,100 at its peak and subsequently dropped below $150 at its lowest. Given this, it is possible that the current price of Bitcoin may not be the end of the bear trend.
How low can bitcoin go?
Looking at the above analysis, there could be another downtrend for Bitcoin in the near future. It is being taken into account that the market evolves into a full blown bear market. This would mean that the current trend down to $20,000 may not be as widely believed.
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If Bitcoin follows its past price action, an 80% drop from its all-time high would mean the digital asset will reach at least $13,000 before the end of the bear market. This will be well below expectations for digital assets.
Nevertheless, Bitcoin continues to hold off the bears. On Monday morning, the digital asset once again surged above $30,000 and with further momentum expected after the opening of the trading week, the cryptocurrency could be well on its way to testing $35,000.
Featured image from DailyFX, chart from TradingView.com
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