Price analysis 7/4: BTC, ETH, BNB, XRP, ADA, SOL, DOGE, DOT, LEO, SHIB

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The crypto market has been relatively stable over the weekend and on the 4th of July, which is a holiday for the financial markets of the United States due to Independence Day. Although Arthur Hayes, the former CEO of derivatives platform BitMEX, was expecting a “mega crypto dump” around July 4, it did not materialise.

The Bollinger Bands have narrowed in width due to the drop in volatility of Bitcoin (BTC) over the past few days. According to popular analyst Matthew Hyland, this signals a possible increase in volatility in the coming days.

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Daily cryptocurrency market performance. Source: Coin360

Meanwhile, cryptocurrency investors are waiting for clues from the US stock market and the US dollar.

Bitcoin’s correlation coefficient with the dollar fell below zero to 0.77 for the week ending July 3, the lowest level in seventeen months. Most analysts surveyed by JPMorgan expect the dollar to end at or below its current price level of around $105. Any weakness in the dollar could be beneficial for bitcoin.

Can the bulls initiate a recovery in the near term? Let’s study the chart of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.

BTC/USDT

The failure of the bears to extend bitcoin’s decline below $19,637 suggests a lack of sellers at lower levels. The bulls will now attempt to push the price above the $19,637 resistance area.

BTC/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If this happens, the BTC/USDT pair could rise to the 20-day exponential moving average ($21,255). This level could again act as a stiff resistance, but if the bulls overcome this barrier, the pair could rise to the upper zone between $22,000 and $23,362.

A break above this area could open the door for a potential rally to the 50-day simple moving average ($25,710). The bulls will need to cross this barrier to signal a possible trend change.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that sentiment remains bearish and traders are selling on the rallies. This could raise the chances of a retest of the key support at $17,622. If this support breaks, the decline could extend to $15,000.

ETH/USDT

Ether (ETH) slipped below psychological levels on June 30 at $1,000, but the bears could not take advantage of this weakness. This shows that the bulls are buying on the downside.

ETH/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The bulls will now try to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($1,192) and gain the upper hand. If they do, the ETH/USDT pair could rise to $1,280 and then the 50-day SMA ($1,535). This level may again act as a strong resistance. The bulls need to push the price above $1,700 to signal the start of a fresh up-move.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would indicate that sentiment remains negative and the bears are selling on the rallies. The bears will then try to pull the price below $998 and challenge the key support at $881.

BNB/USDT

Buyers have successfully defended the support at $211 since June 29, which indicates strong demand at lower levels. The bulls are currently attempting to push Binance Coin (BNB) above the 20-days EMA ($231).

BNB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

If they succeed, it would indicate that the BNB/USDT pair could hit a low of $183. Then buyers will try to move the pair to the 50-day SMA ($266). A break and close above this resistance could indicate a potential change in trend.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, it would suggest that the bears are selling on each short rally. The bears will then again attempt to push the price below $211 and gain the upper hand.

XRP/USDT

XRP is trading inside a symmetrical triangle pattern, indicating indecision between the bulls and the bears. The symmetrical triangle usually acts as a continuation pattern but on some occasions, it also behaves as a reversal pattern.

XRP/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The price bounced off the support line of the triangle and the bulls will attempt to push the XRP/USDT pair above the 20-days EMA ($0.33). If they succeed, the pair can move up to the resistance line of the triangle.

A break and close above this level may suggest the start of a new up-move. Then the pair can rally to $0.48.

Another possibility is a bullish break below the 20-day EMA and a break below the support line of the triangle. This could pull the pair down to the important support level of $0.28. If this level is broken, the next stop could be $0.23.

ADA/USDT

Although Cardano (ADA) has been trading near the $0.44 level since June 30, the bears were unable to pull the price below the support and sustain it. This shows that the bulls are buying into the downside at $0.44.

ADA/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers are currently attempting to push the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.48). If they complete this task, the ADA/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.51). This is an important level to watch as a break and close above it could suggest that the bears are losing their grip.

Alternatively, if the price falls below the moving average, it would suggest that the bears are active at higher levels. Then sellers will attempt to break the pair below $0.44 and challenge the important level of $0.40.

SOL/USDT

Solana (SOL) has been trading well below the 20-day EMA ($35) for the past few days, but the bears have not been able to take advantage of this weakness. This suggests a shortage of sellers at lower levels.

SOL/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers will now attempt to push the price above the 20-day EMA. If they can pull it off, the SOL/USDT pair could rise to the 50-day SMA ($40). A breakout and close above this resistance could open the door for a potential rally towards the psychological $50 level.

On the other hand, if the price falls below the moving average, it would indicate that sentiment remains negative and traders are selling on minor rallies. Then the bears will try to pull the pair below $30. If they do, the pair can drop to $27 and then to $25.

doge/usdt

Dogecoin (DOGE) has been sticking to the 20-day EMA ($0.07) for the past few days. This suggests that the bulls are buying intraday dips as they expect a higher move.

DOGE/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA has flattened out and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is near the midpoint, indicating that selling pressure may be waning. The bulls will attempt to push the price above the 50-day EMA ($0.07) and challenge the immediate resistance at $0.08. If this level is crossed, the DOGE/USDT pair could rise to $0.10.

Conversely, if the price breaks below the current level or the 50-day SMA, it would suggest that the bears are aggressively defending the moving average. Sellers will then attempt to sink the pair below $0.06 and gain the upper hand.

related: Hodler and the Whale: Who Owns the Most Bitcoin in 2022?

dot / usdt

Polkadot (DOT) has been trading between $7.30 and $6.36 since June 30. This shows that the bulls are buying lower but the bears have not allowed the price to move above the range.

DOT/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

Although a decline in the 20-day EMA ($7.52) indicates gains for sellers, a positive divergence on the RSI indicates that bearish momentum may be weakening. If buyers drive price above the 20-day EMA, the DOT/USDT pair could rally to the 50-day SMA ($8.63).

This bullish view could be invalidated if the price declines further below the crucial support level of $6.36. If this happens, the pair may resume its downtrend towards the next support at $5.

leo/usd

The bulls and bears are fighting for dominance near the resistance line of the descending channel. The UNUS SED LEO (LEO) fell to the 20-day EMA ($5.65) on July 2, but the bulls successfully defended the level.

LEO/USD daily chart. Source: TradingView

Buyers are again trying to clear the resistance line of the channel. The 20-day EMA and RSI are moving in positive territory indicating that the path of least resistance is on an upward trend. If the price sustains above $6, the LEO/USD pair could pick up momentum and rally to $6.50. Above this level, there is a possibility of a rally towards the pattern target of $6.90.

Contrary to this assumption, if the price falls below $6 once again, it would indicate that the bears are aggressively defending this level. The bears will then attempt to sink the pair below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do this, the pair can slide to the 50-day SMA ($5.30).

shib/usdt

The Shiba Inu (SHIB) is trading near the psychological level of $0.00010. This shows that the bulls are trying to form a higher low near this support.

SHIB/USDT daily chart. Source: TradingView

The 20-day EMA ($0.0000010) is flat and the RSI is near the midpoint, which indicates a balance between supply and demand. If the price breaks above the 50-day SMA ($0.000010), the SHIB/USDT pair could rally towards $0.0000012. This level can again act as a hard barrier but if it is cleared, the pair can rise to $0.0000014.

Conversely, if the price falls below the moving average, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below $0.000009. If they succeed, the pair may retest the important support at $0.000007.

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.