According to on-chain analytics resource Whalemap, Bitcoin (BTC) continues to trade in a range with local tops and bottoms with increased whale activity in the region.
Range-bound action in bitcoin has kept analysts guessing and some expect the consolidation to continue for some more time, while others expect another leg lower.
A June 6 Glassnode report states that the total losses from long-term holders represent over 0.006% of the market capitalization on May 29. This is compared to a peak of 0.015% of market capitalization during the 2018 to 2019 bears. Market.
Along with the quantum of losses, investors may also have to be prepared for longer periods of lower prices. For long-term investors, the current loss period is only one month old, while the previous loss lasted almost a year.
Can the sluggish trading action continue in Bitcoin and other major altcoins? Let’s study the chart of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
Bitcoin fell below the 20-day exponential moving average ($30,565) on June 7, but a positive sign is that bulls aggressively bought the downside on the trend line of the ascending triangle pattern. This resulted in a strong recovery, as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick. The ascending triangle pattern remains intact in favor of the buyers.
However, a minor downside is that the bulls could not build on the momentum on June 8. This gave an opportunity to the bears, who again pulled the price back below the 20-day EMA. This suggests that the bears are continuing to sell in the area between the 20-day EMA and $32,659.
If the bears push the price below the trendline, the BTC/USDT pair could drop to $28,630, where buying could take place. If this happens, it will indicate that the pair may remain range-bound between $32,659 and $28,630 for a few more days.
The next directional move is likely to start on a break above $32,659 or below $28,630. Until then, volatile range-bound action is likely to continue.
Ether (ETH) fell below the 20-day EMA ($1,908) on June 6, indicating that the bears are not ready to give ground to the bulls. Sellers then tried to push the price below the crucial support level of $1,700 on June 7, but the long tail on the candlestick shows aggressive buying by the bulls near the support.
The price is currently declining between the 20-day EMA and $1,700. This is likely to result in a range expansion which may set the stage for the next directional move.
If buyers push the price above the 20-day EMA, the ETH/USDT pair could rally towards $2,159. At this stage the bears can again put up a strong defense. If the price falls below this, the pair may spend some time in the range of $2,159 to $1,700.
A break above $2,159 would be the first signal that the pair could turn lower while a break below $1,700 could signal a resumption of the downtrend.
Binance Coin (BNB) broke below the resistance line of the symmetrical triangle pattern on June 6th and broke below the support line. This suggests that the bears continue to sell aggressively at higher levels.
The bears pulled the price below the immediate support of $286 on June 7, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows strong buying at lower levels. The bulls are attempting to push the price above the support line on June 8.
If they manage to do so, the BNB/USDT pair could attempt to rise above the resistance line and trap the aggressive bears. Conversely, if the price breaks below the current level, it would indicate that the bears have converted the support line into resistance. This could increase the chances of a drop to $265.
Long wicks on Cardano (ADA) June 6 and June 7 candlesticks indicate that bears are selling rallies on the 50-day simple moving average ($0.65). Although the bears tried to pull the price below the 20-day EMA ($0.58) on June 7, the bulls held their own.
Buyers are again attempting to push the price above the 50-day SMA. If they succeed, the ADA/USDT pair could rally towards the $0.74 breakdown level. This is an important level for the bears to defend against as a break and close above it may suggest a possible change in trend. The pair can then reverse towards the psychological level of $1.
Contrary to this assumption, if the price breaks below the 50-day SMA or $0.74, the bears will attempt to pull the pair below the 20-day SMA and gain the upper hand.
Ripple (XRP) formed a one-day out candlestick pattern on June 7 with price rebounding from strong support at $0.38 and closing near overhead resistance on the downtrend line.
However, buyers could not build on this move and pushed the price above the downtrend line on June 8. This suggests that the bears are continuing to sell near the resistance levels. The bears will try again to push the price below $0.38.
If they succeed, the XRP/USDT pair will complete a descending triangle pattern. This could result in a fall to the May 12 intraday low of $0.33. If this support is broken, the next stop pattern could be a target of $0.30.
This downside outlook could be invalidated in the near term if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA. Then the pair can rally to $0.46.
Solana (SOL) attempted to initiate a recovery with tight resistance at the 20-day EMA ($45), which indicates that the trend remains negative and traders are selling on rallies.
The bears will try to pull the price below the key support area between $37 and $35. If they manage to do so, the SOL/USDT pair may resume its downtrend. Then the pair can drop to $30.
Conversely, if the price bounces off the support area, it would indicate that the bulls are consolidating at lower levels. A break above the 20-day EMA would be the first sign that selling pressure could be waning. The pair can then move up to $50 and later to $60.
Dogecoin (DOGE) once again fell below the 20-day EMA ($0.08) on June 6, indicating that the bears are selling on the rallies. A slight positive is that the bulls made a downside buy on June 7, indicating buying at lower levels.
The DOGE/USDT pair is trapped in a tight range between the 20-day SMA and $0.07, which indicates uncertainty between the bulls and the bears. Typically, tight ranges resolve with expansion but the direction of the breakout is difficult to predict.
If the price rises above the 20-day EMA, buyers waiting on the sidelines can enter and push the pair towards the psychological level of $0.10. Conversely, if the price breaks below $0.07, the pair could resume the downtrend.
related: Ethereum ‘Double Doji’ Pattern Indicates 50% ETH Price Rally by September
dot / usdt
Polkadot (DOT) attempted to rise above the 20-day EMA ($10) on June 6, but a long wick on the day’s candlestick reflects strong selling by bears.
The DOT/USDT pair broke below the support line on June 7, indicating that the symmetrical triangle has resolved in favor of the sellers. The pair may next decline to a strong support at $8.50 where buyers will try to stop the downside.
This downside view may be invalidated in the short term if the price rises above the current level and the resistance line of the triangle. Such a move would indicate that a break below the support line could be a bear trap. The pair can then move up to the 50-day SMA ($12.35).
Buyers tried to push the Avalanche (AVAX) above the 20-day EMA ($28) on June 6, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
The price is correcting lower between the 20-day EMA and a strong support at $21, but this tight range trading is unlikely to continue for long.
If the bulls drive the AVAX/USDT pair above the 20-day SMA, this would suggest the start of a recovery that could reach $37. Positive divergence on the Relative Strength Index (RSI) also favors a relief rally in the near term.
Alternatively, if the range extends downwards and the price falls below $21, the pair can resume its downtrend and fall to $18.
The bears tried to break the Shiba Inu (SHIB) below the strong support at $0.0000010 on June 7, but the bulls successfully defended the level as seen from the long tail on the day’s candlestick.
The longer the price falls below the 20-day EMA ($0.000012), the more likely it is to break below $0.0001010. If this happens, the SHIB/USDT pair could drop to $0.000009, where the bulls could attempt to halt the decline.
For the bearish outlook to be invalidated, the bulls will need to push the price above the 20-day EMA and hold. If they manage to do this, the pair may rebound to $0.0000014, where the bears are likely to establish a strong hedge.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by hitBTC Exchange.