Bitcoin (BTC) is facing an uphill battle near the psychological level of $20,000 as the bulls and bears attempt to assert their dominance. Trading firm QCP Capital said in its latest market circular that funding rates on derivatives markets were stable and bearish conditions were fading.
Another glimmer of hope for the bitcoin bull run is that bitcoin miners may capitulate as the recent price drop has left some miners unprofitable. Data from Arcane Research shows that public bitcoin mining companies that sold only 30% of their mining output from January to April this year dumped 100% of their bitcoin production in May. Some analysts believe that the loss of miners was a bullish signal.
However, one indicator suggests that bitcoin may not break out from the bottom. Historically, bitcoin signals a bottom when less than 50% of bitcoin addresses remain profitable. Glassnode data from June 20 shows that 56.2% of bitcoin addresses are in profit, raising concerns of another down leg.
Can Bitcoin and Altcoins Sustain the Recovery or Will the Bears Pull the Price Down? Let’s study the chart of the top-10 cryptocurrencies to find out.
The bulls are trying to start a recovery in Bitcoin, but the long wick on the June 21 candlestick suggests that the bears are not ready to surrender their gains.
A slight positive is that the bulls are buying the downside on June 22 to $20,000. If the price bounces off the current levels, buyers will try to drive the BTC/USDT pair above $22,000. This could open the door for a potential rally to the 20-day exponential moving average ($24,076).
This level could act as a stiff resistance, but if the bulls cross this barrier, the next stop could be the 50-day simple moving average ($28,678).
This bullish view is likely to be rejected if the price declines and falls below $19,600. This could increase the chances of a retest of the June 18 intraday low of $17,622.
Ether (ETH) jumped from an intraday low of $881 on June 18 to fall below $1,194 on June 21, indicating that the bears have yet to give up and continue to sell on rallies.
If the bulls do not leave the ground higher than current levels, the ETH/USDT pair could attempt a rally again at the 20-day EMA ($1,368). This is an important level to keep an eye on as the bears defend the 20-day EMA during the downtrend.
If the price breaks below the 20-day EMA, the bears will again attempt to pull the pair to $1,000, and then to $881. A break below this level may indicate a resumption of the downtrend. On the other hand, if the bulls push the price above the 20-day EMA, the pair can rise to $1,700.
Since June 19, Binance Coin (BNB) has remained above the crucial support level of $211, but the bulls are struggling to propel the price. The long wick of the June 21 candlestick shows that the bears continue to sell in the rallies.
If the bears push the price below $211, the BNB/USDT pair could drop to $200 and then to the intraday low of June 18 at $183. This is an important level to watch because if the price falls below it, the pair can drop to $150.
Conversely, if the price bounces off $211 or $200, it would indicate that the bulls will continue to buy on the downside. The bulls will then make another attempt to break the upper barrier at the 20-day EMA. If they succeed, it would indicate that a break below $211 could be a bear trap.
Cardano (ADA) bounced off the $0.44 to $0.40 support area near the 20-day EMA ($0.51) on June 21. This suggests that the bears continue to aggressively defend the level.
Sellers will now attempt to push the price below the support area. If they manage to do so, it would suggest the start of the next phase of the downtrend. The ADA/USDT pair could then slide to $0.33 and later to $0.30.
Alternatively, if the price breaks away from the support area again, it would suggest that the bulls will continue to accumulate on the downside. Buyers will then make another attempt to push the pair above the moving average and initiate a rally to $0.70.
Ripple (XRP) has been confined between $0.28 and $0.35 for the past few days. It suggests a state of equilibrium between bulls and bears.
The more time spent inside the range, the stronger the breakout. If the price continues lower and falls below the $0.28 support, it could suggest a resumption of the downtrend.
The RSI is showing a positive divergence, which indicates that bearish momentum is likely to weaken. If the bulls push the price above $0.35, it would suggest the start of a fresh up-move. The XRP/USDT pair can then rise to the 50-day SMA ($0.41) and later rally to $0.45.
Solana (SOL) recovered above the 20-day EMA ($36) on June 21, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick shows that the bears are selling higher.
The price remained below the 20-day EMA on June 22, but the bulls have not given up much ground. This suggests that buyers expect a breakout above the 20-day EMA. If this happens, the SOL/USDT pair could rebound to the 50-day SMA ($47), where the bears can again establish a strong defense.
Conversely, if the price fails to rise above the 20-day EMA, it may attract profit-booking from short-term traders. This can pull the pair to $30 and later to $27.
Dogecoin (DOGE) started a recovery on June 19 and reached the 20-day EMA ($0.06) on June 21. Although the bulls pushed the price above the 20-day EMA, they could not sustain the higher levels.
It may have attracted profit-booking from short-term bulls and selloff by aggressive bears. Sellers will now attempt to break the DOGE/USDT pair below $0.06 and challenge the important support at $0.05.
Alternatively, if the price rebounds from $0.06, it would indicate that sentiment has changed from selling on rallies to buying on dips. This could increase the chances of a breakout above the 20-day EMA. If this happens, the pair can rally to the 50-day SMA ($0.08).
related: Bitcoin Price Drops Below $20K as Whales Send 50K BTC to Exchanges
dot / usdt
Polkadot (DOT) turned down the 20-day EMA ($8.20) on June 21, suggesting that bears continue to aggressively defend the level. Sellers will now try to pull the price below the immediate support at $7.30.
If they succeed, the DOT/USDT pair could decline to the crucial support level of $6.36. This is an important level to watch as a break below it could start the next leg of the downtrend towards $4.23.
Conversely, if the price bounces off $7.30, it would indicate that the bulls are trying to build higher lows. This could increase the chances of a breakout of the 20-day EMA. The pair could then rally towards the 50-day SMA ($9.78). If this level is also crossed, the next stop could be at $12.44.
The bulls pushed the UNUS SED LEO (LEO) above the descending channel resistance line on June 22, but the long wick on the day’s candlestick suggests that the bears are selling higher.
The 20-day EMA ($5.29) has started to rise and the RSI is near the overbought zone, which indicates that the bulls have the upper hand. If the price sustains above the channel, it could open the doors for a possible rise to $6.50.
Conversely, if the price fails to stay above the channel, traders can book profits and this could drag the LEO/USD pair to the 20-day EMA. Such a move suggests that the pair may remain stuck inside the channel for a few more days.
Failure of the Shiba Inu (SHIB) to drop below $0.000007 may have prompted short sellers to book profits and aggressive bulls to initiate buying. This could result in a sharp rally on June 21.
Traders pushed the price above the 20-day EMA ($0.0000010), but could not clear the hurdle at the 50-day SMA ($0.000012). This suggests that the bears are aggressively defending the level.
Sellers are attempting to bring the price back below the 20-day EMA. If they manage to do so, it would suggest that the recent recovery could be a bear rally. The SHIB/USDT pair can then drop to $0.000007.
The 20-day EMA is flattening out and the RSI is near the midpoint suggesting a range-bound action in the near term. Bulls will need to push further and maintain the price above the 50-day SMA to signal a possible trend change.
The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph. Every investment and trading move involves risk. You should do your own research when making a decision.
Market data is provided by hitBTC Exchange.