One analyst has concluded that bitcoin (BTC) is due to give a definite indication that there is a macro bottom in this month.
In a Twitter thread on July 6, popular commentator Wolf saw key moving average data as evidence that BTC price action will not go lower.
Main chart crossover seen as end of bear market loss
Amid repeated calls for BTC/USD to revisit levels not seen since Q4 2020, a simple historical trend is now saying that the pair has already seen its latest macro low.
Analyzing the 3-day chart, Wolf argued that the 100-day moving average (MA) would cross the 200 MA to act as a price floor signal – just like in previous bear markets.
“Negative 3d MA100 will surpass positive 3d MA200 by half-July, confirming that is down,” he wrote.
Notably, the crossover of the two MAs is likely to occur on or after July 15th – in just a week’s time – after which the future trajectory should be confirmed. Should Bitcoin survive a major downside in the meantime, thus $17,600 will remain as the latest long-term BTC price bottom.
The negative 3d MA100 will cross the positive 3d MA200 by the half of July, confirming the downside. pic.twitter.com/WgPMUkWIoy— Wolf (@IamCryptoWolf) 7 July 2022
Despite the historical precedent, such an outcome is still not certain. Before the July 15 deadline, the crypto markets will face the ongoing macroeconomic storm, which has so far proved fatal for riskier assets across the board.
July 13 will be of particular interest to market participants, the date marking the release of Consumer Price Index (CPI) data from the United States for the month of June.
As Cointelegraph reported, inflation is already at a 40-year high, and the CPI readout has shown a consistent upward trend throughout 2022.
The faster inflation appears to be accelerating, the more likely the Federal Reserve’s response is, with monetary tightening having a direct negative impact on risk asset performance.
Moving averages stack up as resistance
Meanwhile, at the time of writing on July 7th, BTC/USD was trading at a weekly high near $20,500.
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In a thread of his own on July 6th, analyst Keith Allen marked various other daily, weekly and monthly MAs as areas of interest that Bitcoin must manage to maintain the upward momentum.
“Persistent rejection at the 21 DMA indicates that there is not enough bullish sentiment to push higher, which brings into focus the downside target,” he explained.
However, he notes that if a resistance/support flip (R/S) occurs, the 50-month MA will come into play, followed by the required 200-week MA, which has formed a major focus in prior bear markets. has constituted.
1/8 tomorrow #bitcoin Tested the 21-day moving average again. After briefly reclaiming it, the price dropped back, marking another failed attempt. The price remains in the range for another retest. Here’s why this stage requires some attention. #NFA pic.twitter.com/gfbWBXtTRk— Keith Allen (@KAProductions) 6 July 2022
As of July 7, the 21-day MA, 50-month MA and 200-week MA were at $20,300, $21,570 and $22,560, respectively, as data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView showed.
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