Fidelity’s Director of Global Macro shares his bitcoin and ether price outlook. Their analysis shows that bitcoin is cheap but ether could be even cheaper. “Ethereum could be close to the bottom,” he said.
Fidelity Director on Bitcoin and Ether Price Outlook
Jurian Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Investments’ Global Asset Allocation Division, shared his bitcoin and ether price analysis in a series of tweets on Friday. Timer specializes in global macro strategy and active asset allocation. He joined Fidelity 27 years ago as a technical research analyst.
He explained why bitcoin is cheap. “I use the price per million non-zero addresses as an estimate of bitcoin’s valuation, and the chart below shows that valuations have returned to 2013 levels, even though the price is only at 2020 levels. But it’s back,” he elaborated. ,
In other words, bitcoin is cheap.
“Bitcoin is below even my more conservative S-curve model, which is based on the curve of internet adoption, at the recent low of $17,600,” said the Fidelity director.
Timmer said it’s clear from looking at bitcoin’s network development that “the adoption curve is tracking a more asymptotic Internet adoption curve rather than a more exponential mobile phone curve.” He continued: “According to Metcalf’s law, slower network growth suggests a more modest price appreciation.”
However, “Based on a simple power regression line, Bitcoin’s network appears to be intact,” the director said. “The continued growth in bitcoin’s network, coupled with low prices, means that bitcoin’s valuation is coming down.”
Global Macro’s director of Fidelity continued to share his Ether price outlook, tweeting:
If bitcoin is cheap, maybe ethereum is cheap. If ETH is where BTC was four years ago, the analog below suggests that Ethereum could be nearing a bottom.
At the time of writing, bitcoin is trading at $21,584, up 11% over the past seven days but down 29% over the past 30 days. Ether is trading at $1,217, up 14% over the past seven days but down 32% over the past 30 days.
What do you think about the Fidelity director’s analysis of bitcoin and ether prices? Let us know in the comments section below.
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