- Blockware Solutions released a report detailing the potential adoption curve of Bitcoin.
- The report compares bitcoin to other disruptive technologies and calculates adoption rates as it relates to the global population.
- The company estimates that bitcoin will not exceed 10% of global adoption by 2030.
Blockware Solutions, an infrastructure provider for blockchain technologies, has just published bitcoin user adoptionA conceptual perspective towards adoption as it relates to the disruptive technological adoption cycle.
The report begins with an overview of what the adoption stage is, which can be described as a sociological measure of the life cycle of a particular idea. While technologies change, human response to innovation is largely predictable. This prediction is outlined in the widely used “S-curve”, which is depicted in the chart below.
If we close our eyes tightly, we can see that Satoshi Nakamoto is innovating at the beginning of 2.5% of the S-curve at the bottom of the graph. Innovators are followed by early adopters, then early majority, and so on.
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Spoiler alert: Blockware’s report suggests that we are still in the “early adopter” phase. But, how is it measured? How can adoption be viewed as a metric?
Blockware took nine disruptive technologies and calculated the percentage of US households using them. The list includes: automobiles, radios, landlines, electric power, smartphones, tablets, cellular phones, the Internet, and social media.
Then, out of those metrics, the company calculates a weighted average (60%, representing 20% each): Internet, smartphone and social media. The results are astonishing.
Parabolic levels of adoption have regularly started with a 10% adoption rate.
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The report noted that bitcoin adoption could outpace other technologies for two main reasons. Bitcoin provides a monetary incentive for adoption in the form of price increases, and the Internet allows for a rapid increase in the speed in which information spreads.
Blockware initially quantifies growth through a bull market in the eyes of new users, defined as “new entities” on Glassnode, a blockchain heuristics company that sources the data provided in the report. does.
As we can see, new users arrive during bull runs, most stop, and some are shaken up during bearish moments of the market. But the trend remains the same and is estimated at 254 million users (3% of the global population).
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These new users set the tone for a new bull run in the market as guilty holders persist. However, the drawback of this metric is that it does not track users leaving the network. This is where “Net Entities Growth” comes in to explain the difference between new users and “disappearing” users. But even by this calculation, the trend remains largely unchanged.
When the “missing” addresses are removed this metric leaves us with a total of 30.8 million unique users.
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When divided by the global population of 30.8 million users, we are left with 0.36% of global acceptance. This estimate will still put us in the innovator section of the S-curve. However, it is important to note that this is only on-chain data.
“Using Net Entities Growth and its Cumulative Sum” [10-year compounded annual growth rate] A CAGR of 60% is estimated that global bitcoin adoption will exceed 10% in the year 2030,” Blockware said in the report.
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We are still very early.
