Analyst offers new way to predict bitcoin’s movement by adjusting old-fashioned stock-to-flow model
Director of Global Macro at Fidelity Jurian Timmer Shared his thoughts on the famous stock-to-flow model widely used by cryptocurrency investors and enthusiasts. The metric is one of the most commonly used tools to determine the next high or low. But Timer has his own take on this and suggested a better way to access stock and adoption data.
scarcity as a price driver
The analyst’s main problem with the current S2F model was that scarcity alone could not drive the price up. Deficiency alone cannot be used to increase the value of an asset if it is not adopted, used or has no other use.
The close-up below shows that this more modest supply model is more accurate than the original S2F estimates for this halving cycle. /15 pic.twitter.com/65WgS4Hody— Jurian Timmer (@TimmerFidelity) 2 June 2022
For this reason, Timer created an S-curve model that mimics the mobile phone adoption curve. This should help determine the future adoption rate of bitcoin and overall network growth.
Timmer also said that the model’s accurate prediction of bitcoin’s meteoric growth may be accurate due to the huge cryptocurrency adoption rates, and he doubts the model will work from now on, when the capitalization of digital gold rises to nearly $600 billion. Will go
Timer took into account the supply limits currently on bitcoin and added them to the chart. The supply projection will help determine the exact growth and adoption pace of bitcoin.
According to three different models, bitcoin is likely to rise to $63,000. In the best possible scenario, we would see bitcoin rise to $144,000. In that case, the movement of bitcoin would be almost an exact copy of the mobile phone S-curve demand model.
At press time, bitcoin is trading at $30,345, having lost more than half of its value since hitting an all-time high in November.