Prices continue to fluctuate wildly in bitcoin and the crypto domain as a whole, making the asset class vulnerable to new investors and the more prominent players in a bull market.
Well-known cryptocurrency analyst Benjamin Cowen says that perhaps there is a macroeconomic indicator that could be a possible reason for a trend reversal in Bitcoin (BTC).
Cowen addressed his 754,000 YouTube subscribers in a new strategy session, informing them that he was monitoring the US inflation rate and its relationship to equity markets and bitcoin.
According to his tweet on June 15, he has firmly stated that inflation is still on the rise, and that nothing like higher interest rates will be the answer to controlling the unpredictability in the crypto space.
However, he expressed some doubts about the current BTC trend. He claimed that other altcoins began a rapid rally as bitcoin went through a quiet surge of recovery that washed away the cryptocurrency market.
S&P isn’t nearing bottom anytime soon
According to Cowen, traditionally, the S&P 500 index does not go down until inflation has peaked and then turns. Since bitcoin often exhibits similar behavior to the index, “until inflation slows down, BTC may not decline”, he said.
“It’s the S&P 500 with inflation and that’s one of the things that we know is going on right now that’s making the macro pretty disappointing at the moment. So one thing that will be clear is the top of inflation and The correlation between the bottom half of the S&P.
In other words, the well-known crypto analyst claims that as long as inflation continues to rise, Bitcoin and the stock market will continue to fall.
He further elaborated on his outlook on the S&P, where he analyzed the S&P’s past action in the 1970s, when it came down at the same time that inflation reached its first peak, and then, also from this local top, it roughly represented 50. % Downfall. As a result, the S&P continues to decline when we look at the market today.
Cowen believes inflation is likely to rise for some time before you can actually see a more concrete peak. So one should not yet assume that by that moment the S&P 500 has reached its bottom.
BTC behaves like a risk asset
One must also consider that the macro bottom is not in place as bitcoin behaves like a risk asset just like the S&P 500.
The experts conclude by saying that since BTC is currently in a bear market, it is difficult to predict precisely how and when the largest cryptocurrency by market size will rally again. As a result, BTC could see several trend reversal attempts in the coming months.