Bitcoin (BTC) has fallen to an important long-term moving average (MA), below which it has never reached a weekly close.
BTC has been declining since hitting an all-time high of $69,000 in November. The downside movement so far is the June 15 low at $20,715.
An interesting development is the fact that the price has reached its 200-day moving average (MA). This is the fifth time (green sign) since the beginning of its price history.
Interestingly, the price has never reached a weekly close below this level. Although it fell below it in March 2020, it bounced off and formed a long lower wick, reclaiming the line shortly thereafter.
short-term double bottom
The daily chart shows no reversal signal as the price is falling free without a down signal.
However, the daily RSI is at its lowest since January (green sign). At that time, there was an increase of 46%.
The 30-minute chart is showing that the price has formed a double bottom against the price on June 14 at $21,000.
Moreover, it has bounced off the support line of a descending parallel channel. Such channels usually have corrective movements, which means that an eventual breakout would be expected from it.
If this happens, the nearest resistance area will lie at $22,800.
BTC wave count analysis
The short-term wave count suggests that BTC may have completed a five-wave downward movement (black).
The current low is formed at the confluence of the Fibonacci level between $21,850 and $22,650. These are given by the 1.61 external fib retracement of wave four (black) and the length of wave one (white).
So, it is possible that a floor has been created.
Additionally, if the entire downward movement since the all-time high is an ABC corrective formation (red), then the waves A:C have an exact 1:1 ratio when using the Fib chart.
So, this supports the findings on the weekly time frame and those short term calculations that suggest the bottom is reached or very close.
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