ARK Invest ‘neutral to positive’ on Bitcoin price as analysts await capitulation

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According to ARK Investment Management, Bitcoin (BTC) has a “neutral to positive” outlook despite staying below $20,000.

In its latest “Bitcoin Monthly” report, the US asset management giant indicated that BTC price action is nearing a bottom.

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Wood: “We await more surrender signals”

One of the most vocal proponents of bitcoin, ARK and CEO, Kathy Wood, has stuck with BTC exposure as the market is falling from all-time highs.

The latest Bitcoin Monthly release confirms that conviction, with Wood, analyst and research associate David Puell suggesting that there is very little ground to be covered before BTC/USD reverses.

“Down 70% from its all-time high, bitcoin is trading at or below some of its most important levels: its 200-week moving average, the general cost basis of the market (gain value), the long-term cost basis (LTH) and short-term holders (STH), and its 2017 peak,” read the report.

“Trading below these levels is unusual and suggests highly oversold conditions. Only four times in history has bitcoin traded below price levels relative to these instruments.”

By the way, most of the damage should have been done earlier, if history is the guide. Among the indicators yet to see absolute lows are the MVRV ratio – the ratio of the actual range and the cost basis of the entities for different lengths.

“Historically, the global bottom occurs when the MVRV of short-term holders exceeds the MVRV of long-term holders,” ARK explained.

“That condition is not met, suggesting the potential for more negativity.”

Generally, however, Wood sees no cause for concern in particular as the bitcoin market faces a major storm of significant historical proportions.

In the latest edition of ARK’s podcast “Into the Know,” released on July 1, he described the company’s approach to BTC as “from positive to positive.”

“We are waiting for some more capitulation signals and of course, time will tell here on the systemic side. We haven’t heard of another stress signal in the last few days, so that is good too,” Wood said.

Price drop continues

Meanwhile the position of ARK is like that of various market commentators.

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As Cointelegraph continues to report, the consensus is falling to around $16,000, with most on-chain metrics already lower or never seen before.

“Historically, the 200-week MA has been considered a downside indicator for BTC. In this cycle, things could be a little different,” said popular trader and analyst Rect Capital Told Twitter followers continue a topic touched on by ARK at the end of last week.

“Instead of $BTC hitting a low of the 200MA, it could form a macro range below it. Anything below the 200MA would potentially represent an extreme opportunity.”

Data from Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView shows that the 200-Week MA currently sits above $22,550, and has never stopped moving.

BTC/USD 1-Week candle chart (Bitstamp) with 200MA. Source: TradingView

The views and opinions expressed here are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the views of Cointelegraph.com. Every investment and trading move involves risk, so you should do your own research when making a decision.