It is widely accepted that the fate of the cryptocurrency market largely depends on the performance of Bitcoin (BTC), which makes this a great time for crypto traders who prefer to invest in altcoins.
Altcoins follow when the price of BTC goes down, but as the downward process begins, altcoins rise during the consolidation phases of bitcoin and this usually calls for an altcoin season. While bitcoin’s current drop below $30,000 indicates that it is a bit premature to call for an alternate season, analysts are still charting various results that point to an altcoin season. Let’s see.
ETH/BTC Price Action Could Be An Early Indicator
The possibility of an altcoin season using the ETH/BTC chart as an indicator was discussed by analyst and pseudonymous Twitter user PlanDeFi, who compared the performance of ETH/BTC in 2021-2022 against the pair’s performance since 2016. Posted the following chart comparing 2017’s performance. ,
“Looks very similar, doesn’t it? Accumulation > Breakout > Ascending Channel > Breakout. Markets are now bigger – it just takes longer.”
Based on the projection provided, the next season could begin sometime after the beginning of July and has the potential to extend through the end of 2022.
Fractals of 2017 suggest a season is imminent
The market may be approaching an inflection point as provided by El_Crypto_Prof, who posted the following chart looking at altcoin market capitalization history.
“When it comes to altcoins, I can see the following scenario at play. There are a lot of similarities with the previous cycle. The RSI also looks incredible. The next wave will outperform many.”
related: Fed money printer goes in reverse: what does this mean for crypto?
The Market Is Strongly In “Bitcoin Season”
While fractals are pleasing to the eye and give hope to disillusioned traders, most do not materialize and are not accurate analytical methods for trading to rely on.
The “AltSeason Indicator” provides a more metric-based method of predicting when the market is in “Bitcoin Season” and “Altcoin Season”.
As per the chart above, it does not appear that an alt-season is likely to occur any time soon as the metric is currently providing a readout of 24, while the level required to indicate an alt-season is 75 .
Based on the past performance of the index, it has taken at least 2 to 3 months for it to climb from that zone which shows that it is from Bitcoin season to Altcoin season level. Going by the indicator, current projections suggest that an altcoin season may not start until August or September 2022.
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